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The Pavich Perspective Blog reflects the analysis and execution within the Max Power Alpha portfolios. The intent is to offer actionable ideas regarding the short-intermediate term of the financial markets. It is easy to read, insightful, and we like to think sometimes funny.

We view the markets from a technical perspective having watched them closely for the last thirty plus years. We believe all other types of analysis, fundamental, quantitative, cyclical, etc. will show supply and demand patterns via charts. These patterns often repeat themselves and this is where we derive our signals.

We usually produce a broader, deeper take on the weekends and updates during the week. Five to seven minutes is the usual amount of time it takes to get through a letter. Lengthy pieces going into the weeds of the economy is not what you will find here. If the markets are being impacted significantly by these dynamics I will use links to articles that provide details.

The Blog provides actionable ideas especially at perceived inflection points to provide You will also see there that my ideas are actionable. Instead of getting into the weeds of an ancillary yet contributing topic, I will provide links if you choose to go deeper and expand your knowledge base.

“Not Knowing Where You Came From Diminishes Where You Arrive”

“Not Knowing Where You Came From Diminishes Where You Arrive”

Today’s STUP topic revolves around the premise that if you don’t know where you have come from, the odds are where you’re headed involves a more diffused process and  happenstance outcome. I mentored college students for 15 years, one of my first pieces of advice get to know your grandparents and great grandparents if you are so lucky (the second was go mentor someone younger). Thursday was  the 75th anniversary of D-Day and how our country was at the core of defeating Nazi Germany, essentially creating the freedom we know today. It was one of the most courageous military actions...

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“Coming Recession/Correction To Bailout Dems Inconsistency?” or “Prez Xi Rolls Dice With The Left?”

“Coming Recession/Correction To Bailout Dems Inconsistency?” or “Prez Xi Rolls Dice With The Left?”

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The perpetual desire to uncover classified and shadowy information per the government has been top of the agenda free press wise since cutting cord with the Queen. Getting the scoop usually paid off in getting the Pulitzer. Just ask 1970 WaPo boys Woodward and Bernstein and how they swayed Deep Throat. So the Democrats released the dogs in attempting to influence or more accurately intimidate DOJ head Bill Barr to release a full unredacted Mueller report (doesn’t appear to me Barr is intimidatable-new word). But then curiously none of the Dems given the privilege to read the less redacted report...

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“The Express Lane From Group Think To Tone Deaf?”

“The Express Lane From Group Think To Tone Deaf?”

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]A couple of events unfolded last week had me scratching my head and muttering “What are you thinking?” Group think is a dynamic which has gathered momentum in our political/cultural playing fields the last couple of decades. It’s a cancer for critical thinking especially when coupled with confirmation bias. The apparent urge to feel connected with others sways our thought process so as not to feel left out or possibly offend someone in the tribe. It is a key component why smart people do dumb things.   The Alabama Senate voted last week to make abortion illegal for all situations...

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“Did You Believe The Russians Too?”

“Did You Believe The Russians Too?”

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Now that the Mueller report is out the 24 hour news cycle can reaccelerate again. We all know the Russians despicably infiltrated our election process. Which is unbelievable as I thought all the bad guys agreed to draw the line at stealing military/technology secrets? I wonder if the US has been guilty of manipulating other countries governments. Topic for another issue. I want to shine a light on exactly what the Russians did do. The platform which enabled their espionage is tech titan Facebook. The phenomenon this entity became a short decade ago is transformational, allowing us to effortlessly and...

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“The Dumbing Down Of Our Kids Unfortunately Begins With The Parents?”

“The Dumbing Down Of Our Kids Unfortunately Begins With The Parents?”

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The Operations Varsity Blues scandal  has received widespread coverage and the attendant mockery. The coming dribbling out of the twists and turns should keep us entertained and the night show hosts with fodder for months. Easy to laugh and point fingers if this was not a shameful and embarrassing statement of our culture. The easy aspects to acknowledge is how the rich will always find a way to privilege no matter how low they have to stoop. And we are just a country of the entitled who more and more feel the ends justify the means at every turn. The...

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“Recipe To Close Dem’s 2020 Credibility Gap?”

“Recipe To Close Dem’s 2020 Credibility Gap?”

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]As I have noted on my website, I am neither Republican or Democrat or even Libertarian. I am an issues guy looking for solid solutions to challenging problems/opportunities. I strongly believe we need a constructive two party (three party might even be better Howard?) system for legitimate checks and balances along with synergies that solo’s can’t create. Obviously the current vitriol is a significant problem and if continues on its trajectory will no doubt take us the way of the Roman Empire. Remember every super power that has ever been has become not a super power. At this point it...

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“President Donald’s Past & Future Collide”

“President Donald’s Past & Future Collide”

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]President Donald’s past and future collided Wednesday when he met with North Korean Prez Kim while at about the same time his former fixer Michael Cohen met with the House. The partisanship on the Hill was thick and authenticity absent. If not for Elijah Cummings hitting all the right notes at the end I would have said it was mostly a waste of time. Actually if you saw none of it, Elijah is all you need to watch. The Irony My thirty year spite towards Donald Trump never truly wavered from escalator to inauguration. His book should have been titled...

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“Schulz To Level Presidential Playing Field”

“Schulz To Level Presidential Playing Field”

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Welcome to the inaugural Max Power blog “Square That Up Please?” Much of what I will share in this space are lessons learned from engaging that unforgiving mentor the stock market. And today’s rant is directly related. Sentiment with equities is often a key indicator and usually of the contrarian variety. Too much bearishness and the market is sure to bottom, too much bullishness…TIMBER. James Dines wrote a book titled Mass Psychology documenting the dynamic precisely. So when Starbucks founder and lifelong democrat Howard Schulz announced his candidacy as an Independent he created a tsunami like knee jerk reaction, and...

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